Posted by
Dawnsblood on Monday, October 02, 2006 6:46:55 PM
Not exactly sure what to make of
this. I do know that Afghans typically quit fighting in the Fall/Winter and tend to ramp back up in the Spring/Summer, but then again suicide bombing was never their thing either. Anyways:
It has now been agreed the troops will quietly pull out of Musa Qala
in return for the Taliban doing the same. The compound is one of four
district government offices in the Helmand province that are being
guarded by British troops. Although soldiers on the ground may welcome the agreement, it
is likely to raise new questions about troop deployment. Last month Sir
Richard Dannatt, the new head of the British Army, warned that soldiers
in Afghanistan were fighting at the limit of their capacity and could
only “just” cope with the demands.
The locals seem serious though:
But there are clear signs of the commitment of the people of Musa Qala
to the deal, with one Talib who stood out against it reportedly lynched
by angry locals.
Update: It seems they don't normally cease attacks until December:
Over the past week or so, the rate of hostile
incidents, though still higher than in comparable periods in the past,
has declined rather noticeably. This is attributed to the onset of
Ramadan. No one expects the relative lull to continue. The rate of
attacks has always risen in October, as the Taliban tries to get in a
few good blows before the onset of bad weather. By mid-December the
harsh weather will make military operations extremely difficult in much
of the country. By then, the Taliban would like to be able to control
the maximum amount of territory, so that it can spend the Winter
recruiting and indoctrinating fighters and preparing for next spring.
Meanwhile, despite having extensive borders with the Central Asian
republics and Iran, virtually all insurgent activity is either in the
eastern or southern regions of Afghanistan, along the Pakistani
frontier. Only about 5-6 percent of incidents occur in the other half
of the country.